Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Conversations At A Wake
Reihan Salam and Sam Tannehaus have a mildly interesting exchange on The Death of Conservatism.
However, they seem completely oblivious to the demographic landscape shifting under their intellectual feet.
This prophecy came true, and I don't see any change reversing current demographic trends in the future.
Technically speaking, even a large Obama victory would not be a realignment. Realignments are moments when there are broad shifts in the electorate, and in 2008 there will be no significant shifts in the partisan voter preference of any demographic group. Important swing groups such as white Catholics, suburban women, Latinos, seculars, Independents and working-class whites are not likely to demonstrate any large, sudden or long-term shifts in allegiance from one party to the other. Instead, an Obama victory would simultaneously be comeuppance to a forty-year-old conservative strategy of scapegoating minorities and the realization of long-term demographic trends that finally allow those minorities collectively to achieve majority status.
Since 1968 American presidential elections have been defined as a competition over fundamentally conservative identity groups. Even though they are not precisely congruous, a direct lineage exists from the Nixon-forged Southern Strategy of the 1960s and '70s, to the Reagan Democrats of the '80s, to Mark Penn's Bubbas of the '90s and on to the Values Voters of this decade. These swing voting groups are overwhelmingly white, not very urban, heavily blue-collar, generally Southern and always socially conservative. Even though the labels have changed, these four criteria have been the genetic code of swing voters for nearly forty years. In every case, the decisive swing voting group has been hostile to impending social change brought on by various civil rights movements and resentful of the cultural predilections of an urban, bicoastal "liberal elite." The quest to capture these voters has created an entire generation of pundits, strategists and party leaders who will do everything possible to appear not-liberal, not-elite and in touch with the values of small-town America, whatever those values happen to be at any given moment. A Southern accent helps, too. A Democratic politician's willingness to distance himself or herself (but usually himself) from--and to use "Sister Souljah" moments frequently to denounce--the left wing of the Democratic Party helps even more.
Andrew praises the call for truth telling, but I don't see any truth here.
the "small but intense and vocal minority," many of them "white evangelical Christians," who today populate the eroding island of movement conservatism.
Huh? White evangelical christians are all that is left in entire GOP base. In the 2008 exit polls evangelical christians pegged at 50% of the GOP, but my hypothesis is that is much higher now. Evangelicals comprise about 20% of the national electorate, and Mormons about 2%. Catholics represent 27% of the electorate and voted for Obama at 67%.
31% of the electorate is not going to win any elections.
Buckley?
Lol....it is to laff.
The conservative intellectual that informs Mormon convert Glenn Beck's 912 Project is Cleon Skousen.
Is it possible that the GOP has become a purely religious party in the 21st century?
Apparently so....and sadly..... the single most influential conservative intellectual is a mormon crank too crazy for even the LDS elders.
// posted by Matoko Kusanagi @ 12:14 PM 
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Hmmmm, bad hypothesis that ignores inconvenient facts. Obama was losing in the polls (and McCain winning) up to the point that McCain ran off to Washington to pass the bail-out bill, thereby painting himself as part of the corrupt, out-of-touch, no-holds on spending Beltway elite; then Obama won.
Polls show that the biggest concern of the eletorate is government accountability and transparancy; Obama is under 50%; and most importantly has lost his lead amongst the young.
Obama promised "Hope and Change" and people went for it because they were sick of corruption, deficit spending and out-of-touch arrogance; then he showed that not only was he these things but he was their epitome.
The GOP has an opportunity to become the alt party, and they are showing some sings of success.
And why do you have to pick on Beck so much? Have you watched or listened to him to give yourself an informed opinion? He actually agrees with you that we should be out of Afghanistan as it is unwinnable; he agrees with Keid about debt to China and a real economic collapse. The only reasons I can see that you hate him is because he is a Christian, and you are an anti-Christian bigot, and he opposes Obama, and you are an Obamabot as you have proven.
Polls show that the biggest concern of the eletorate is government accountability and transparancy; Obama is under 50%; and most importantly has lost his lead amongst the young.
Obama promised "Hope and Change" and people went for it because they were sick of corruption, deficit spending and out-of-touch arrogance; then he showed that not only was he these things but he was their epitome.
The GOP has an opportunity to become the alt party, and they are showing some sings of success.
And why do you have to pick on Beck so much? Have you watched or listened to him to give yourself an informed opinion? He actually agrees with you that we should be out of Afghanistan as it is unwinnable; he agrees with Keid about debt to China and a real economic collapse. The only reasons I can see that you hate him is because he is a Christian, and you are an anti-Christian bigot, and he opposes Obama, and you are an Obamabot as you have proven.
And, sadly, Andrew shows himself to be the unimaginative obsessive once again.
Hey Andrew, it isn't all about gay marriage for the GOP.
It's not all about gay marriage for most of the electorate.
If you insist on turning the whole of the American political debate on GM you are going to lose. You are going to lose: Blacks, Hispanics, Muslims, Orthodox Jews, Mormons, Catholics and maybe Asians.
If he insists on basing it all on the GM issue they're going to lose. But that's not what I think the conservative movement and the GOP are going to bet on; they're going to bet on set of issues of: gov spending, deficits, corruption, accountability, etc.
That's a winner.
At this point pointy head pseudo intellectuals like Andrew have succeeded in taking any need the GOP might have to use an issue like GM off the table for them and provided another more important, better at coalition building issue (or set thereof). They have done this by their unquestioning worship of the new master of corruption and waste Obama.
Hey Andrew, it isn't all about gay marriage for the GOP.
It's not all about gay marriage for most of the electorate.
If you insist on turning the whole of the American political debate on GM you are going to lose. You are going to lose: Blacks, Hispanics, Muslims, Orthodox Jews, Mormons, Catholics and maybe Asians.
If he insists on basing it all on the GM issue they're going to lose. But that's not what I think the conservative movement and the GOP are going to bet on; they're going to bet on set of issues of: gov spending, deficits, corruption, accountability, etc.
That's a winner.
At this point pointy head pseudo intellectuals like Andrew have succeeded in taking any need the GOP might have to use an issue like GM off the table for them and provided another more important, better at coalition building issue (or set thereof). They have done this by their unquestioning worship of the new master of corruption and waste Obama.
The reason the Catholic support is small is because, for now, the current GOP is so dominated by evangelicals.
But if you project a historic concord that starts to broaden the Christian base of the Party, to bring in Hispanic conservative Catholics, then the Catholic vote could easily increase to the point where 67% vote "Republican", if "Republican" means a broad traditional-values party.
Also you should be aware that a Lat-Am influenced party is likely to be more socialist than the current GOP - call it "humane" conservatism. Lat-Am Catholicism is deeply influenced by "Liberation Theology". Lat-Am CDs' are often the party of the center-left.
I am assuming this would be part of a general leftward shift in US politics to something closer to the European model.
Like it or not, after President Obama, welfare statism is an accomplished fact in the USA. It can only be moderated in future, not removed entirely.
And like it or not, this is quite possibly what the majority electorate - as it will be in a decade or two - will want.
But if you project a historic concord that starts to broaden the Christian base of the Party, to bring in Hispanic conservative Catholics, then the Catholic vote could easily increase to the point where 67% vote "Republican", if "Republican" means a broad traditional-values party.
Also you should be aware that a Lat-Am influenced party is likely to be more socialist than the current GOP - call it "humane" conservatism. Lat-Am Catholicism is deeply influenced by "Liberation Theology". Lat-Am CDs' are often the party of the center-left.
I am assuming this would be part of a general leftward shift in US politics to something closer to the European model.
Like it or not, after President Obama, welfare statism is an accomplished fact in the USA. It can only be moderated in future, not removed entirely.
And like it or not, this is quite possibly what the majority electorate - as it will be in a decade or two - will want.
Keid,
You know what I find interesting regarding your Catholic/Hispanic/GOP comments? The fact that the last major Catholic GOP candidate was Pat Buchanan. That is until he was essentially kicked out of the GOP for being a racist against Hispanic illegals.
And while I agree that the GOP has a future with socially conservative hispanics (and SC asians and even blacks) I believe that it will be more middle-class hispanics that will vote Republican (as hispanics continue to make economic inroads) which would probably negate your "liberation theology" argument (as that is an ideology of the very poor of CA and SA)
You know what I find interesting regarding your Catholic/Hispanic/GOP comments? The fact that the last major Catholic GOP candidate was Pat Buchanan. That is until he was essentially kicked out of the GOP for being a racist against Hispanic illegals.
And while I agree that the GOP has a future with socially conservative hispanics (and SC asians and even blacks) I believe that it will be more middle-class hispanics that will vote Republican (as hispanics continue to make economic inroads) which would probably negate your "liberation theology" argument (as that is an ideology of the very poor of CA and SA)
I agree that it will be a party of the middle class.
But the middle class of the future will accept the basic elements of the welfare state as the European middle class do. As the Canadian, Australian & NZ middle class do.
I am not sure that Republicans will ever support full Amnesty. Maybe some of the business interests.
But the middle class of the future will accept the basic elements of the welfare state as the European middle class do. As the Canadian, Australian & NZ middle class do.
I am not sure that Republicans will ever support full Amnesty. Maybe some of the business interests.
US Consumer Credit continued to drop in August.
Fastest decline since WWII, when consumer spending was constrained by rationing.
Fastest decline since WWII, when consumer spending was constrained by rationing.
Two interesting and for me, highly relevant geopolitical articles from the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief:
One focusing on the impact of China's resources push into Latin America.
One focusing on border tensions between China and India.
One focusing on the impact of China's resources push into Latin America.
One focusing on border tensions between China and India.
Besides, you didn't answer my question: have you ever sat down and watched Beck? Not a clip forwarded to you; but actually watched him for an hour?
OT I thought this was a very cool story:
Some engineer dudes have invented a nuclear battery using a liquid semiconductor diode for power conversion.
The advantage of liquid is that the structure doesn't degrade under intense radiation bombardment.
So now, when me and the real Motoko Kusanagi fly off into space in our cyberbodies, we're going to have high-efficiency power supplies, to keep us warm during those long, dark nights between the stars. ;)
Seriously. I believe nuclear powered cyborgs is a key step in adapting life to the space environment - permanently.
And there's a lot more space out there than Earths.
Some engineer dudes have invented a nuclear battery using a liquid semiconductor diode for power conversion.
The advantage of liquid is that the structure doesn't degrade under intense radiation bombardment.
So now, when me and the real Motoko Kusanagi fly off into space in our cyberbodies, we're going to have high-efficiency power supplies, to keep us warm during those long, dark nights between the stars. ;)
Seriously. I believe nuclear powered cyborgs is a key step in adapting life to the space environment - permanently.
And there's a lot more space out there than Earths.
Uhm, Keid, isn't it a design flaw for you cyberbodies to need warmth? If you could download yourself into a machine wouldn't you want to fulfill Brother Cavil's dream of experiencing things flesh and blood bodies could never dream of tolerating?
Keeping warm was a bit of poetic licence. Any machine will have to keep powered though. So the power may be more important than the heat for a cyborg.
As for uploading my mind to a machine, I'm not sure Scorpius. GitS cyborgs have cyberbrain modifications, but they still seem to keep a biological core. At least that's the way I'm reading it.
I am open to the possibility of fully uploading minds. But IMHO we don't understand consciousness well enough, to know whether it would really be me, or just a very good simulation of me. And whether there is any difference between the two.
So put me down as "undecided" on the question of uploading. If it really works, then I have no objections.
But even a truly 100% mechanical cyborg is going to need power, even if it doesn't strictly need warmth. However, in reality, all practical machines have an ideal operating temperature-range.
Space is very cold indeed (2.7K cosmic background radiation) and many machines would cease to work at that temperature, if not for some additional heat. Even our robot space-probes, need heat for the cameras, joints etc to keep working in deep space.
A nuclear battery would have some waste heat to spare, though.
As for uploading my mind to a machine, I'm not sure Scorpius. GitS cyborgs have cyberbrain modifications, but they still seem to keep a biological core. At least that's the way I'm reading it.
I am open to the possibility of fully uploading minds. But IMHO we don't understand consciousness well enough, to know whether it would really be me, or just a very good simulation of me. And whether there is any difference between the two.
So put me down as "undecided" on the question of uploading. If it really works, then I have no objections.
But even a truly 100% mechanical cyborg is going to need power, even if it doesn't strictly need warmth. However, in reality, all practical machines have an ideal operating temperature-range.
Space is very cold indeed (2.7K cosmic background radiation) and many machines would cease to work at that temperature, if not for some additional heat. Even our robot space-probes, need heat for the cameras, joints etc to keep working in deep space.
A nuclear battery would have some waste heat to spare, though.
BTW, Shammy, don't you think it's a "bit" revealing that your boy, Obama, doesn't support gay marriage?
Shams,
I've never heard of this Cleon Stousen person before. I've checked him now in Wiki.
I am not all that familiar with LDS, although I have read the usual door-to-door copy of the Book of Mormon and the other literature they distribute about Joseph Smith.
I've never heard of this Cleon Stousen person before. I've checked him now in Wiki.
I am not all that familiar with LDS, although I have read the usual door-to-door copy of the Book of Mormon and the other literature they distribute about Joseph Smith.
Folks, you really can't make this stuff up. KSA is asking for aid if the world kicks the oil habbit.
Shams, it's finally hitting them that the oil-thing ain't gonna last. Like all booms it will come to an end one day. Maybe soonish. A few decades.
Actually, seriously, they are right to worry. I have been arguing for years that the end of the age of oil could be a catastrophe for the oil-exporting nations.
Shams, it's finally hitting them that the oil-thing ain't gonna last. Like all booms it will come to an end one day. Maybe soonish. A few decades.
Actually, seriously, they are right to worry. I have been arguing for years that the end of the age of oil could be a catastrophe for the oil-exporting nations.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee hardly ever fails to amaze me with its choice of Peace Prize winners.
This year is no exception.
This year is no exception.
I don't have a problem with them using nuclear power. They have a legal right to peaceful use of nuclear power as signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
However, as the cost of solar energy is continuing to drop rapidly, it seems to me that a country as sunny as Saudi Arabia should consider solar energy farms first.
But that's not really the point.
The real issue for KSA is that when solar or nuclear arrives full power, it will be in a world that is also switching. So there is no advantage, nothing to export.
I can foresee solar desalination, to make the deserts bloom. But who is going to farm them? The Princes?
What are they going to export in order to import all the stuff they import now? Are they going to manufacture all that stuff themselves? How is the economy going to work?
And look what's happened to the population since 1960. This is the real crisis.
It's dire Shams.
However, as the cost of solar energy is continuing to drop rapidly, it seems to me that a country as sunny as Saudi Arabia should consider solar energy farms first.
But that's not really the point.
The real issue for KSA is that when solar or nuclear arrives full power, it will be in a world that is also switching. So there is no advantage, nothing to export.
I can foresee solar desalination, to make the deserts bloom. But who is going to farm them? The Princes?
What are they going to export in order to import all the stuff they import now? Are they going to manufacture all that stuff themselves? How is the economy going to work?
And look what's happened to the population since 1960. This is the real crisis.
It's dire Shams.
There has been a long-term projest that North Africa could export solar power to Europe, using surperconducting cables across the Mediterranean. But that's north Africa. It is hard to see that working for Saudi Arabia.
Besides, that's never going to be the same kind of money spinner that oil is. The thing about solar energy is that it is practically unlimited. The long-term cost is likely to fall to near-sero.
Besides, that's never going to be the same kind of money spinner that oil is. The thing about solar energy is that it is practically unlimited. The long-term cost is likely to fall to near-sero.
I should also mention. I think the credit conditions may be showing some signs of improving.
The Fed's latest data may be showing an uptick, particularly in commercial paper. Too early to be sure. Monitoring.
The Fed's latest data may be showing an uptick, particularly in commercial paper. Too early to be sure. Monitoring.
I think it's an interesting idea, but it will always be competing with closer sources in Europe like Spain, Sicily, the Balkans, Turkey.
As the cost of solar drops, the marginal income to the producers is going to limited.
There is never going to be a shortage of sunlight like there is with oil.
As the cost of solar drops, the marginal income to the producers is going to limited.
There is never going to be a shortage of sunlight like there is with oil.
Nuclear or solar power is useful for oil exporters, because it helps them to free up oil for export.
These days their domestic consumption is growing so rapidly that it threatens to consume all their exports.
Saudi could use nuclear or solar for desalination or domestic electricity. It would free up oil for export.
But if the world starts to limit the use of oil because of CO2, they are stuffed.
The same is true if electric cars etc become practical. The demand for oil will fall faster if we have electric cars, limiting the price of oil.
These days their domestic consumption is growing so rapidly that it threatens to consume all their exports.
Saudi could use nuclear or solar for desalination or domestic electricity. It would free up oil for export.
But if the world starts to limit the use of oil because of CO2, they are stuffed.
The same is true if electric cars etc become practical. The demand for oil will fall faster if we have electric cars, limiting the price of oil.
This kind of thing could be the death of oil:
New Ni-Li battery has twice the energy density of Li-ion.
New Ni-Li battery has twice the energy density of Li-ion.
Keid, Yes Obama's Nobel Peace Prize is bizarre. What's interesting is that Brad Woodhouse, communications director for the DNC, seems to be channeling Sham-wow: "The Republican Party has thrown in its lot with the terrorists -- the Taliban and Hamas -- this morning in criticizing the president for receiving the Nobel Peace prize."
It's like she's become their speechwriter.
It's like she's become their speechwriter.
Scorpius,
Criticism of the Peace Prize is not in any way a criticism of the US President.
It's a WTF? aimed at Norway's Nobel Peace Prize Committee.
Given that nominations closed on 1 Feb 2009, you have to conclude he got the prize for winning the election.
Criticism of the Peace Prize is not in any way a criticism of the US President.
It's a WTF? aimed at Norway's Nobel Peace Prize Committee.
Given that nominations closed on 1 Feb 2009, you have to conclude he got the prize for winning the election.
Keid,
It's really sad they sold out their credibility, again. One of the values of the prize is that it encourages altruistic deeds (yes, I believe most "altruistic" deeds are done for some selfish reasons); if people believe that all their hard charity work is for naught then they will be less motivated.
"Sick old man" (McCain) was right: Clinton should have won it for his work with refugees.
It's really sad they sold out their credibility, again. One of the values of the prize is that it encourages altruistic deeds (yes, I believe most "altruistic" deeds are done for some selfish reasons); if people believe that all their hard charity work is for naught then they will be less motivated.
"Sick old man" (McCain) was right: Clinton should have won it for his work with refugees.
eteraz--
On the Nobel prize controversy: if we can have pre-emptive war we can have pre-emptive peace.
On the Nobel prize controversy: if we can have pre-emptive war we can have pre-emptive peace.
Shams, What peace?
Oh wait, I get it. It's like rainmaking ceremonies.
They use kettle gongs to simulate thunder, and sprinkle drops of water around to simulate rain in the hope that the rain gods get the message.
Oh wait, I get it. It's like rainmaking ceremonies.
They use kettle gongs to simulate thunder, and sprinkle drops of water around to simulate rain in the hope that the rain gods get the message.
Shams,
Don't you think offering Obama the Peace Prize, just for being there, is a pretty extreme form of grovelling and flattery, even for Euroweenies?
Don't you think offering Obama the Peace Prize, just for being there, is a pretty extreme form of grovelling and flattery, even for Euroweenies?
You see, we normally don't expect that sort of crude obsequiousness in democratic systems.
It's more the kind of thing you associate with Cults of Personality, like Joseph Stalin or Saddam Hussein or Idi Amin.
They got awarded every medal, title and honor that was going. Because everyone was trying to ingratiate themselves.
I mean if you give the Great Leader the peace prize, two weeks after his inauguration, what do you give him if he actually does something? How do you top it?
What's the next step? Shrines? Temples? Cathedrals?
It's more the kind of thing you associate with Cults of Personality, like Joseph Stalin or Saddam Hussein or Idi Amin.
They got awarded every medal, title and honor that was going. Because everyone was trying to ingratiate themselves.
I mean if you give the Great Leader the peace prize, two weeks after his inauguration, what do you give him if he actually does something? How do you top it?
What's the next step? Shrines? Temples? Cathedrals?
Information Alert:
New information coming through about last week's World Gas Conference in Buenos Aires.
It has been revealed that global natural gas reserves may be upgraded many times over as a result of the new technology of shale gas.
This means that with modest help from renewables like solar and wind, when they are available, and natural gas for baseload power and backup power, we can dramatically reduce CO2 emmissions; as well as guarantee energy supplies for the rest of this century.
Much more here. If this pans out this is very very important news.
New information coming through about last week's World Gas Conference in Buenos Aires.
It has been revealed that global natural gas reserves may be upgraded many times over as a result of the new technology of shale gas.
This means that with modest help from renewables like solar and wind, when they are available, and natural gas for baseload power and backup power, we can dramatically reduce CO2 emmissions; as well as guarantee energy supplies for the rest of this century.
Much more here. If this pans out this is very very important news.
Shammy, that's a really dumb thing to say. To have a war you only need one party to think there is a war on and go crashing against the enemy militarily. Heck, you don't even need the last part. For peace you need agreement amongst all parties.
Take the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israelis would love peace, they've done everything they can to ensure peace (moving settlements, giving aid, airlifting Palis to Israeli hospitals for free medical care) and yet there is still no peace; because the Palis don't want it.
I'm disappointed in you, shammy, many lefties criticized the awarding (Greenwald, Beinart, Cox, Klein) because it was ridiculous.
But you're a 'bot and can't criticize you god even if he gets an award under ridiculous circumstances.
Take the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israelis would love peace, they've done everything they can to ensure peace (moving settlements, giving aid, airlifting Palis to Israeli hospitals for free medical care) and yet there is still no peace; because the Palis don't want it.
I'm disappointed in you, shammy, many lefties criticized the awarding (Greenwald, Beinart, Cox, Klein) because it was ridiculous.
But you're a 'bot and can't criticize you god even if he gets an award under ridiculous circumstances.
Keid,
That's pretty cool. I should allocate some funds to buy one (and a replacement cartridge) for my hiking kit and my 72-Hr bug-out bag.
One design flaw though. It's designed similar to a 2 liter bottle with the opening to the filtration part in the bottom. This means that without a pitcher you have to dip the bottom of the bottle into the contaminated water source. Not a big problem, but if you are not careful when you go to pour out the clean water some contaminated water still maybe clinging to the bottle and contaminate your fresh.
That's pretty cool. I should allocate some funds to buy one (and a replacement cartridge) for my hiking kit and my 72-Hr bug-out bag.
One design flaw though. It's designed similar to a 2 liter bottle with the opening to the filtration part in the bottom. This means that without a pitcher you have to dip the bottom of the bottle into the contaminated water source. Not a big problem, but if you are not careful when you go to pour out the clean water some contaminated water still maybe clinging to the bottle and contaminate your fresh.
Good point.
Might be a good idea to use the first fresh water that spurts out to rinse the outside of the bottle.
Should help a bit. But a second container of some kind, to scoop up the original dirty water, would be useful.
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Might be a good idea to use the first fresh water that spurts out to rinse the outside of the bottle.
Should help a bit. But a second container of some kind, to scoop up the original dirty water, would be useful.
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