Friday, September 18, 2009
Green Tide Rising
Good news out of Iran today.
Rafi brilliantly co-opted Qods day for the Sea of Green.
If either Seyyed Mousavi or Seyyed Karroubi is arrested, they become the next Imam Ali.
The regime is going down.
I say within a year.....any takers?
// posted by Matoko Kusanagi @ 9:58 AM 
Comments:
<< Home
The picture is closely cropped. I don't know that is a very large group. Nothing new.
If either Seyyed Mousavi or Seyyed Karroubi is arrested, they become the next Imam Ali.
Stalin or Mao would have known how to solve that conundrum.
Ahmadinejad? Not sure yet.
If either Seyyed Mousavi or Seyyed Karroubi is arrested, they become the next Imam Ali.
Stalin or Mao would have known how to solve that conundrum.
Ahmadinejad? Not sure yet.
I don't believe that Ahmedinejad has the total control of all the levers of power in Iran. The basiji are his all the way, but the Revolutionary Guard, the Council of Guardians in Qom, and the police forces are wavering due to internal dissent in each group. Even Khamenei is an ally of convenience and they have had recent conflict between each.
Ahmedinejad's power thus partially rests on appeals to legitimacy. Clearly each repressive act of his also lessens his legitimacy (e.g. the recent arrests of opposing clerics' children). So he is in a bind; he must intimidate his opponents enough without losing too much legitimacy.
Fortunately his opponents have been wise and self-restrained. Their political maneuvers, by being peaceful in nature, are slowly eroding his legitimacy. I pray the best for them and Iran!
Ahmedinejad's power thus partially rests on appeals to legitimacy. Clearly each repressive act of his also lessens his legitimacy (e.g. the recent arrests of opposing clerics' children). So he is in a bind; he must intimidate his opponents enough without losing too much legitimacy.
Fortunately his opponents have been wise and self-restrained. Their political maneuvers, by being peaceful in nature, are slowly eroding his legitimacy. I pray the best for them and Iran!
The show trials and the arrest of the opposition children are classic Stalinist tactics. They have been copied by many tyrants.
All I can say is that Ahmadinejad shows Stalinist tendencies. Whether he has the strength or the will to push it to the limit, only time will tell.
If he wishes to act he must act soon. This is his final term as President.
If he proves to be reluctant, he is still creating conditions that will make it easier for the next Stalin-wannabe.
FWIW Spengler is not optimistic about Iran either.
All I can say is that Ahmadinejad shows Stalinist tendencies. Whether he has the strength or the will to push it to the limit, only time will tell.
If he wishes to act he must act soon. This is his final term as President.
If he proves to be reluctant, he is still creating conditions that will make it easier for the next Stalin-wannabe.
FWIW Spengler is not optimistic about Iran either.
I wouldn't underestimate the Iranian people. My fear is that they are picking a fight with China that they cannot win. Does Rafsanjani have any dealings with Beijing?
I suspect Beijing has much affection for Ahmadinejad. On account of the fact that he so irritates the West.
Shammy-wow, did you check out the ultimate n00b Obama whining about how Iran was so hard to deal with. It's too bad we didn't elect someone who understood these things from the get go like, oh I don't know, McCain.
I mean, my Gods Shammy. Double-digit unemployment; a trade war with China; looking the fool to Iran, NK, and others; tripling of the debt. How can you not think this is not the worst horror-show since the depression? The only way to get through this mess without waking up in a sweat in the middle of the night screaming is to go on a multi-year bender (too bad I don't drink).
We basically have McCain's foreign Policy with complete corruption, criminality and incompetence on the economy. A chimp could run this country better than Obama.
We basically have McCain's foreign Policy with complete corruption, criminality and incompetence on the economy. A chimp could run this country better than Obama.
There are reports that Chinese companies are selling gasoline to Iran. This has implications for any US attempt to impose tougher sanctions on Iran.
A recent poll of Iranian public opinion, managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland finds:
"Eighty-one percent say they consider Ahmadinejad to be Iran's legitimate president, and 62 percent say they have a lot of confidence in the declared election results".(WorldPublicOpinion.org)
"Eighty-one percent say they consider Ahmadinejad to be Iran's legitimate president, and 62 percent say they have a lot of confidence in the declared election results".(WorldPublicOpinion.org)
Despite the disclaimer in the report, (it's worth downloading the full report), the numbers on how Iranians say they voted in the election are interesting:
55% Ahmadinejad
14% Mousavi
26% Refused to answer
If you redistribute the "refused to answer" votes in the same proportion as the rest, you conclude that Ahmadinejad may have won 74% of the vote.
Now if you compare this to the results of the independent survey taken before the election - that I have linked previously - then I would have to conclude that available survey data is not inconsistent with the Iranian government's official election results. Even allowing for post-election "bandwagon effect".
So I conclude that available independent surveys do not seem to support opposition claims that the election was "stolen".
Bear in mind the survey's evidence that 87% of Iranians are satisfied with their political system (page 10), 83% say the election was free and fair (page 9).
So barring decisive evidence to the contrary, Shams; I have no reason to doubt that Ahmadinejad is indeed the legitimate, democratically-elected President of Iran.
Post a Comment
55% Ahmadinejad
14% Mousavi
26% Refused to answer
If you redistribute the "refused to answer" votes in the same proportion as the rest, you conclude that Ahmadinejad may have won 74% of the vote.
Now if you compare this to the results of the independent survey taken before the election - that I have linked previously - then I would have to conclude that available survey data is not inconsistent with the Iranian government's official election results. Even allowing for post-election "bandwagon effect".
So I conclude that available independent surveys do not seem to support opposition claims that the election was "stolen".
Bear in mind the survey's evidence that 87% of Iranians are satisfied with their political system (page 10), 83% say the election was free and fair (page 9).
So barring decisive evidence to the contrary, Shams; I have no reason to doubt that Ahmadinejad is indeed the legitimate, democratically-elected President of Iran.
<< Home
