Friday, June 26, 2009
Qompromise
I have been trying to find everything I can on what Rafsanjani might be up to.....this is interesting.
A source familiar with the thinking of decision-makers in state agencies that have strong ties to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said there is a sense among hardliners that a shoe is about to drop. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- Iran’s savviest political operator and an arch-enemy of Ayatollah Khamenei’s -- has kept out of the public spotlight since the rigged June 12 presidential election triggered the political crisis. The widespread belief is that Rafsanjani has been in the holy city of Qom, working to assemble a religious and political coalition to topple the supreme leader and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
"There is great apprehension among people in the supreme leader’s [camp] about what Rafsanjani may pull," said a source in Tehran who is familiar with hardliner thinking. "They [the supreme leader and his supporters] are much more concerned about Rafsanjani than the mass movement on the streets."Ayatollah Khamenei now has a very big image problem among influential Shi’a clergymen. Over the course of the political crisis, stretching back to the days leading up to the election, Rafsanjani has succeeded in knocking the supreme leader off his pedestal by revealing Ayatollah Khamenei to be a political partisan rather than an above-the-fray spiritual leader. In other words, the supreme leader has become a divider, not a uniter.Now that Ayatollah Khamenei has become inexorably connected to Ahmadinejad’s power grab, many clerics are coming around to the idea that the current system needs to be changed. Among those who are now believed to be arrayed against Ayatollah Khamenei is Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the top Shi’a cleric in neighboring Iraq. Rafsanjani is known to have met with Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani’s representative in Iran, Javad Shahrestani.A reformist website, Rooyeh, reported that Rafsanjani already had the support of nearly a majority of the Assembly of Experts, a body that constitutionally has the power to remove Ayatollah Khamenei. The report also indicated that Rafsanjani’s lobbying efforts were continuing to bring more clerics over to his side. Rafsanjani’s aim, the website added, is the establishment of a leadership council, comprising of three or more top religious leaders, to replace the institution of supreme leader. Shortly after it posted the report on Rafsanjani’s efforts to establish a new collective leadership, government officials pulled the plug on Rooyeh.
To me, that seems like the solution that Qom is most likely to go for. It is a way to climb down gracefully. The regime does know it cannot win. It has to be frightening to the regime that the Greens are using the same techniques that succeeded against the Shah......perhaps puppet-master America reined in the Shah's Tianaman tendencies, while Qom serves that function for Khameni.
He well knows there is a line of blood that if he crosses it, Qom will go against him.
I wonder about the make-up of the council....if Khameni is one member, or Mojtaba, that is a way for them to save face and ensure the succession. Rafsanjani is an obvious choice. Montazeri possibly?
But Sistani would be the genius choice I think....given that he is really the titular head of the Shi'ia and his lineage and scholarship are impeccable. Certainly that would present a strong united Shi'ia front to the world...and heal the breach between Najaf and Qom, and the breach between Iran and Iraq.
Bonus....every neocon head in the USA would simultaneously explode.
In a contest between religious belief and and oligarchy, belief wins in the end I think....the christians beat the romans, and even stole their name. The once mighty roman empire is dust.....the Roman Catholic Church is the largest land holder in the world.
Ya Haqq!
In a contest between religious belief and and oligarchy, belief wins in the end I think....the christians beat the romans, and even stole their name. The once mighty roman empire is dust.....the Roman Catholic Church is the largest land holder in the world.
// posted by Matoko Kusanagi @ 6:04 AM 
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I'll reserve my judgement for now Matoko.
Yes, Qom could solve this.
Some kind of compromise could emerge.
But there are other possible futures in the multiverse.
There are futures where the IRGC imposes it's solution.
For now I watch and wait.
Nothing would surprise me.
Yes, Qom could solve this.
Some kind of compromise could emerge.
But there are other possible futures in the multiverse.
There are futures where the IRGC imposes it's solution.
For now I watch and wait.
Nothing would surprise me.
Well.... yes, and I think the dar al sunni would be pretty upset too.
It is interesting that Iranian Kurds are Shi'ia, while Iraqi Kurds are Sunni, of the Shaf school.
It has to frightening to the regime that the Greens are using the same techniques that succeeded against the Shah......perhaps puppet-master America reined in the Shah's Tianaman tendencies, while Qom serves that function for Khameni. He well knows there is a line of blood that if he crosses it, Qom will go against him.
It is interesting that Iranian Kurds are Shi'ia, while Iraqi Kurds are Sunni, of the Shaf school.
It has to frightening to the regime that the Greens are using the same techniques that succeeded against the Shah......perhaps puppet-master America reined in the Shah's Tianaman tendencies, while Qom serves that function for Khameni. He well knows there is a line of blood that if he crosses it, Qom will go against him.
And.....having Sayeed Ali al Sistani is a perfectly legitimate choice in a Shi'ia Islamic republic...he is the Grand Ayatollah of the Shi'ia.....think of the bond that would forge with Iraq.
Reshape the memetic geography of MENA fo'sure.
Reshape the memetic geography of MENA fo'sure.
You know...if Rafsanjani is actually thinking of something like this...it would be much better to do it while the americans are still there in Iraq.
I imagine the sunnis would freak out.
I imagine the sunnis would freak out.
.....think of the bond that would forge with Iraq.
Let's say we are going in a similar direction. But you see the mullahtocracy as the moving force, whereas I see the IRGC led by Ahmedinejad, with Khamenei junior or senior.
You see a new mullahtocratic Shia Commonwealth. I see the Peoples Republic of Shi'iastan - Socialism with Persian Characteristics.
Let's say we are going in a similar direction. But you see the mullahtocracy as the moving force, whereas I see the IRGC led by Ahmedinejad, with Khamenei junior or senior.
You see a new mullahtocratic Shia Commonwealth. I see the Peoples Republic of Shi'iastan - Socialism with Persian Characteristics.
I think that's why I liked Shahir Shahidsaless' article in AsiaTimes so much. It filled in so many gaps for me.
After reading that I could clearly see the Maoist-inspired strategy behind it. I think it is the best analysis I have read so far.
After reading that I could clearly see the Maoist-inspired strategy behind it. I think it is the best analysis I have read so far.
the Greens are using the same techniques that succeeded against the Shah
The Shah was dying of cancer. And he never received the backing he needed from the weakest US president in the history of the multiverse. Jimmy Carter.
The IRGC is a nascent revolutionary army. And I suspect Hu Jintao smiles down upon it from his heavenly jade throne.
The Shah was dying of cancer. And he never received the backing he needed from the weakest US president in the history of the multiverse. Jimmy Carter.
The IRGC is a nascent revolutionary army. And I suspect Hu Jintao smiles down upon it from his heavenly jade throne.
Interesting. I hadn't read Mr Sick's analysis.
He adds a few interesting points that I had not thought through. I was aware of course of the conflict between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad, it emerged in the TV debates. But Mr. Sick is right, the conflict would also be with the IRGC.
It leads you to wonder what has happened to Rafsanjani. No one's heard from him for ages.
Re Caliphate. They can call it what they like as long as the Mullahs don't really run the state. They can still retain religious authority - provided the institutions are stacked with loyal or apolitical mullahs - I think the troublesome ones would be purged in the IRGC model.
He adds a few interesting points that I had not thought through. I was aware of course of the conflict between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad, it emerged in the TV debates. But Mr. Sick is right, the conflict would also be with the IRGC.
It leads you to wonder what has happened to Rafsanjani. No one's heard from him for ages.
Re Caliphate. They can call it what they like as long as the Mullahs don't really run the state. They can still retain religious authority - provided the institutions are stacked with loyal or apolitical mullahs - I think the troublesome ones would be purged in the IRGC model.
Why wrong?
Have you thought that through, Joseph?
The Caliphate of the Shi'ia.
Dar al sunni would be most unhappy.
in 72 hours american soldiers must leave the cities of Iraq.
Have you thought that through, Joseph?
The Caliphate of the Shi'ia.
Dar al sunni would be most unhappy.
in 72 hours american soldiers must leave the cities of Iraq.
That's why I was thinking of it as a dual Commonwealth.
Or else the mullahtocracy would become apolitical, like the Vatican. Just rule as the religious authority over the two states.
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Or else the mullahtocracy would become apolitical, like the Vatican. Just rule as the religious authority over the two states.
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